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We forecast 2024 holiday retail sales at $1.353 trillion, growing 4.8% YoY. Ecommerce sales will grow 9.5% to $266.89 billion, as consumers prefer online shopping for quick purchases and price comparisons. Bain estimates that from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, US retail sales could reach a record-breaking $75 billion. Retailers can expect another doorbuster Black Friday–to–Cyber Monday shopping period. 55% of holiday shoppers make purchases during early holiday sales before Thanksgiving. By the Thanksgiving weekend, 85% of consumers have started their holiday shopping. Holiday shoppers in 2024 are 15.4% more likely to begin shopping by early November than shoppers in 2019 (pre-pandemic). Online retail spending is expected to hit new highs this holiday season. Adobe forecasts consumers will spend a record $241 billion online during the 2024 holidays, up 8.4% from 2023. Retail executives surveyed echoed consumer optimism, with 80% expecting sales growth this holiday season aided by anticipated traffic growth in both in-store and online channels. However, 78% felt that earlier promotions are pulling sales forward, emphasizing the need for retailers to have the right products and prices early in the season. The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. NRF forecasts that total retail sales during the holiday months of November and December will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023 to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. NRF also surveys consumers throughout the holidays to understand their celebration plans and how they are budgeting for core holiday items like gifts. Shopify's 2024 holiday retail survey examined trends for the holiday season by looking at responses from 2,000 consumers in the U.S. and another 16,000 in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy ... Consumers are expected to spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December, compared with $955.6 billion during the same timeframe last year, the...

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